A COVID-19 Game
Here is a super-simplified infectious disease game for your amusement.
The map
There are three towns: Town Alpha, Town Beta, and Town Gamma. Each town has three households and each household has three residents. There is an infectious disease out there and the three towns are trying to protect their citizens i.e., each town is trying to save the lives of its 9 denizens.
The disease
The disease has high infectivity and everybody outside the three homes in each town is already infected. Any citizen who will go out of their house and come in contact with an infected person will in turn get infected. The disease is slightly more lethal than regular flu and there is no drug to cure it. Initial data has suggested that people with a robust immune system can easily fight the disease; older people and sick people are at a higher risk--the risk increases with increasing age and increasing frailness or comorbidity. With good medical care, the acutely sick infected person can be cured in one day.
The demographics
Town Alpha and Town Beta have similar demographics. Each household has two elderly persons and one young person. Town Gamma has two young people and one elderly person in each household.
The healthcare system
Town Alpha and Town Beta both have one hospital each where only one acutely sick person can be looked after. Town Gamma has no hospitals.
The strategies
Town Alpha strategists come up with the idea of a lockdown to save their healthcare system from being overwhelmed. They calculate the probability of people leaving their homes and getting infected to be 33% each day, if a lockdown is enforced. The town announces a 3-day lockdown, with the calculation that each day three people will get infected, one young person and two vulnerable people; out of the two vulnerable persons one will get seriously sick and will need to be hospitalized. Since the hospital has one bed, it can easily take care of the acutely sick person. By the start of the second day, the person hospitalized the day earlier will be cured and will be sent home; the second day, three more people will go out and get infected, with one taken to the hospital, and so on. By the end of the third day--the last day of the lockdown--all nine citizens will have completed their exposure to the disease. Everybody will be saved! Hooray!
But the above was just one probable outcome--Scenario One, the best-case. There are other likely scenarios too. Here are a few:
Scenario Two: NO ONE listens to the lockdown instructions. Everybody goes out and everybody gets infected the first day, with three people being acutely sick. Since the hospital has only one bed, only one seriously ill patient is saved, the other two die.
Scenario Three: EVERYBODY takes the lockdown instructions very seriously and NOBODY goes out of their home for the three lockdown days. The hospital is empty for three days. Then the fourth day, at the end of the lockdown, everybody goes out at the same time; three people get acutely sick. Since the hospital has only one bed, only one seriously ill patient is saved, the other two die.
Scenario Four: The probability calculation of 33% per day exposure during a lockdown proves to be wrong. Instead, six people go out the first day (or the second day, or the third day). Two get seriously sick. Since the hospital has only one bed, only one seriously ill patient is saved, the other one dies.
There are other probable scenarios too, but for the sake of simplicity let’s ignore them. Let’s further assume that the social trends are strongly in favor of Scenario One--the other three scenarios weighing much less. And, in the end the weighted probability indicates that 1.6 lives can be saved with a lockdown (vs only ONE, with no lockdown).
So, Town Alpha opts for a 3-day general lockdown.
Town Beta strategists decide to not have a lockdown; they can see the harmful effects of that strategy. They believe the citizens can be quickly informed about the disease, and the probability of something going wrong per day (with no lockdown) is 33% i.e., three people will get infected through random human error, per day; only one person will get seriously ill and the one-bed hospital in town can take care of the acutely sick person. So, no lockdown for Town Beta.
By this time you know that Town Alpha is the US, Town Beta is Sweden, and Town Gamma is a developing country.
What is Town Gamma’s strategy? It does not have its own strategy. It believes in copying others. Since it has strong ties with Town A, it copies Town A’s strategy of a general lockdown, even when Town Gamma’s demographics are completely different than Town Alpha’s.
AND, which healthcare system is Town Gamma trying to save from being overwhelmed? It does not have one.
Here is a super-simplified infectious disease game for your amusement.
The map
There are three towns: Town Alpha, Town Beta, and Town Gamma. Each town has three households and each household has three residents. There is an infectious disease out there and the three towns are trying to protect their citizens i.e., each town is trying to save the lives of its 9 denizens.
The disease
The disease has high infectivity and everybody outside the three homes in each town is already infected. Any citizen who will go out of their house and come in contact with an infected person will in turn get infected. The disease is slightly more lethal than regular flu and there is no drug to cure it. Initial data has suggested that people with a robust immune system can easily fight the disease; older people and sick people are at a higher risk--the risk increases with increasing age and increasing frailness or comorbidity. With good medical care, the acutely sick infected person can be cured in one day.
The demographics
Town Alpha and Town Beta have similar demographics. Each household has two elderly persons and one young person. Town Gamma has two young people and one elderly person in each household.
The healthcare system
Town Alpha and Town Beta both have one hospital each where only one acutely sick person can be looked after. Town Gamma has no hospitals.
The strategies
Town Alpha strategists come up with the idea of a lockdown to save their healthcare system from being overwhelmed. They calculate the probability of people leaving their homes and getting infected to be 33% each day, if a lockdown is enforced. The town announces a 3-day lockdown, with the calculation that each day three people will get infected, one young person and two vulnerable people; out of the two vulnerable persons one will get seriously sick and will need to be hospitalized. Since the hospital has one bed, it can easily take care of the acutely sick person. By the start of the second day, the person hospitalized the day earlier will be cured and will be sent home; the second day, three more people will go out and get infected, with one taken to the hospital, and so on. By the end of the third day--the last day of the lockdown--all nine citizens will have completed their exposure to the disease. Everybody will be saved! Hooray!
But the above was just one probable outcome--Scenario One, the best-case. There are other likely scenarios too. Here are a few:
Scenario Two: NO ONE listens to the lockdown instructions. Everybody goes out and everybody gets infected the first day, with three people being acutely sick. Since the hospital has only one bed, only one seriously ill patient is saved, the other two die.
Scenario Three: EVERYBODY takes the lockdown instructions very seriously and NOBODY goes out of their home for the three lockdown days. The hospital is empty for three days. Then the fourth day, at the end of the lockdown, everybody goes out at the same time; three people get acutely sick. Since the hospital has only one bed, only one seriously ill patient is saved, the other two die.
Scenario Four: The probability calculation of 33% per day exposure during a lockdown proves to be wrong. Instead, six people go out the first day (or the second day, or the third day). Two get seriously sick. Since the hospital has only one bed, only one seriously ill patient is saved, the other one dies.
There are other probable scenarios too, but for the sake of simplicity let’s ignore them. Let’s further assume that the social trends are strongly in favor of Scenario One--the other three scenarios weighing much less. And, in the end the weighted probability indicates that 1.6 lives can be saved with a lockdown (vs only ONE, with no lockdown).
So, Town Alpha opts for a 3-day general lockdown.
Town Beta strategists decide to not have a lockdown; they can see the harmful effects of that strategy. They believe the citizens can be quickly informed about the disease, and the probability of something going wrong per day (with no lockdown) is 33% i.e., three people will get infected through random human error, per day; only one person will get seriously ill and the one-bed hospital in town can take care of the acutely sick person. So, no lockdown for Town Beta.
By this time you know that Town Alpha is the US, Town Beta is Sweden, and Town Gamma is a developing country.
What is Town Gamma’s strategy? It does not have its own strategy. It believes in copying others. Since it has strong ties with Town A, it copies Town A’s strategy of a general lockdown, even when Town Gamma’s demographics are completely different than Town Alpha’s.
AND, which healthcare system is Town Gamma trying to save from being overwhelmed? It does not have one.
